Black Sea Security Under the New Conditions

In the first quarter of 2020, the security situation in the Black Sea region remained unstable with a tendency to further deteriorate. The Russian Federation has not stopped or changed its plans for aggressive policy and further militarization of the region. The COVID-19 pandemic made adjustments, but did not force Russia to abandon its aggressive policy in the region.

The key threats are:

-  Russia’s plans to capture the North Crimean Channel of Ukraine;

- Unreasonable concessions  to Russia, including steps by the Ukrainian authorities  under the guise of "peace at any cost";

- Blackmail and bribery by the Kremlin of political leaders in the region;

- Continuous militarization of occupied Crimea and the whole Black Sea region by Russia;

- Obstructing the freedom and safety of navigation;

- Implementation of politically motivated energy projects (TurkStream);

-  Obstruction of work of international organizations in the situation of gross violations of human rights in the occupied regions of Ukraine. 

The period September-November, between the Victory Day in Russia postponed to 3 September 2020 and the holding of the strategic exercises "Caucasus-2020" may be particularly dangerous.

To know more read a Policy Brief, prepared in the framework of the project "Promoting Security in the Black Sea Region through Greater Engagement of Non-Governmental Organizations" with the support from the Black Sea Trust Fund, a project of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, and the issue No 1(37) 2020 of the Black Sea Security journal (//geostrategy.org.ua/en/chornomorska-bezpeka/item/1609-chornomorska-bezpeka-1-37-2020/1609-chornomorska-bezpeka-1-37-2020).