The Centre for Global Studies "Strategy XXI" presents to your attention the research "SCENARIOS FOR THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN RUSSIA AFTER THE MILITARY DEFEAT IN UKRAINE," written within the framework of the project "Strengthening analytical decision-making capabilities in the field of foreign policy with the help of civil society," which is implemented by the Center for International Security with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation Representation in Ukraine in 2022.
The research was first published on the analytical platform of the Project.
Authors: Mykhailo Gonchar, Volodymyr Horbach, Halyna Zelenko, Volodymyr Nahirnyi, Iryna Pavlenko, Andrii Starodub
The article considers two basic scenarios of the development of domestic political processes in the Russian Federation as a result of Russia’s future defeat in the war against Ukraine. Also analyzed are possible derivatives of the basic scenarios:
Regime conservation scenario:
- Vladimir Putin’s lifetime retention as the head of the Russian Federation.
- Putinocracy without Putin—Russia headed by a new nominee from the authorities, as agreed by elite groups.
Disintegration scenario:
- Semi-disintegration—strengthening of regional elites (until peaceful secession).
- Chaos—conflictual disintegration (civil war).
The aforementioned scenarios will have a negative impact on regional and global security, generating different levels of threats to other countries. Based on the analysis, an assessment is made of the greater or lesser likelihood of a particular scenario. Also, the potential level of threats to Ukraine as a result of the development of the situation in the Russian Federation under a particular scenario is determined. Some recommendations are offered to protect Ukraine from adverse effects from the territory of the Russian Federation after the end of active hostilities.